The ability to build relationships, execute policies, and enable economic innovation at scale will be the guiding force in 2024. As we wind down 2023, its always good to reflect, adjust and recharge from the successes and failures. The future is fast and leadership matters.
A few guesses and predictions for 2024……
2024 Predictions
Geo-Political Landscape
There will be multiple centers of gravity for alliances and partnerships. The world will continue to fragment and innovation will get closer to the sources. Old alliances will renew (5 eyes, NATO) and new alliances will rise (SCO, BRICS, MENA+CHINA). The result will create localized innovations, feed infrastructure investments, and increase regional scale. Practical technology solutions will come bottoms up vs tops down. The newness of the instant global connective tissue over the last 20 years has run its course. Now the real work begins with local application that solve real and/or perceived challenges.
Energy
The ebb and flow of energy will continue to shape the world in which we live. The abundance of new energy materials poses challenges to traditional energy sources. The producers shape the market. The consumer nations hedge with unconventional alliances. This brings opportunity, conflict and shifts in global power. 2024 will show that rare earths are not really rare…they are everywhere. Oil and Gas will continue to rule the world.
USA
On the surface, the elections will take center stage. The chaos will breed new leadership. New leadership will accelerate new innovation hubs, enhance foreign alliances and diversify economic relationships. Opportunity #beyondchina will dramatically accelerate. Accountable economic policies will be the key to national and regional security. A renewed focus on cleaning our own house will be the underling flash point bringing the people to action.
CHINA
What got you here will not get you there. As the CCP gets closer to the sun, heat suits will need to be worn. Planning creativity, innovation and world order is harder than you think. Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) will continue to decline as countries, businesses and currency exit the middle kingdom for greener pastures. Continued advancement of next generation technologies will help support a softer landing somewhere on the Belt and Road. The rebranding of Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) to Global Security Initiative(GSI), Global Development Initiative(GDI) and Global Community Initiative(GCI) enable the failures to be deleted and dual circulation to continue. The competitive advantage will continue to be the global channels and distribution networks leaving the western world confused, naïve and disoriented. Fear of failure will continue to blind the CCP.
INDIA
General elections will take center stage. GDP will continue at record pace as companies and organizations rebalance supply chains. New defense and technology alliances with western countries will accelerate its rise and strength. Lack of modern infrastructure and limited financial access will continue to weigh down faster growth. New alliances and business partnerships with Mexico will accelerate the nearshoring activities in the Americas. India may vary well be the broker in the coming year…..or maybe they already are..
Global South
2024 will surface the unique opportunity for new global growth. China knew this a while back. The developed world is late to the game. The Global South represents the next 25 years of opportunity. Rich in resources, young in age and the ability to leap frog technology. Africa, Latin America and the Middle East all will rise in 2024 and represent the keys for many in the developed world.
Let’s move to some of the drivers of 2024…..
TECHNOLOGY
Here are a few technologies which will see significant competition, opportunity and new use cases. Some very exciting opportunities and game changers. The nations, regions and individuals who enable automation will be the winners. Can the people keep pace with the technology?
Hardware is king. Software is fatigued.
The combination of hardware + software solutions will reign the winner in 2024. Companies and organizations who embrace the change by combining software, hardware and services will be the winners. We see this already with the resurgence of Dell, AMD, and IBM. Tesla has led the way as one of the largest AI/data in the world through cars.
Dual Use Technologies will accelerate.
With the current geopolitical environment, the need and practicality of dual use solutions will explode. 2023 saw the awareness grow, 2024 will see increases in funding, contracts and partnerships. Local and federal governments need the speed of the private sector to solve problems.
AI + Quantum will take the lead.
AI/ML made a splash in 2023 thanks to open access of Large Language Models(LLMs). In order for solutions to accelerate, we will need more compute power to support breakthrough solutions in healthcare, energy and logistics. Quantum computing and alternate chip architectures can solve the compute problem.
Microchips
Chips will be customized for specific use cases around automation. These AI accelerators will produce new business models and expanded markets. Gone are the general chipsets. Processors closer to the sources will enable faster response and complementary automation. Sourcing and materials will continue to be a core priority for 2024. Supply chains take decades to build.
The Space race accelerates.
State sponsored or private is the question. Which can innovate faster, which can own the atmosphere. 2024 will see the race continue around launch vehicle technologies, space station development and geospatial technologies which advance national interests. Own space and own the world, literally.
Happy New Year
I am very excited about 2024. There will be unknowns, setbacks and false starts. However, this is what builds character, shapes cultures and innovates the world
As we rush into 2024, leadership will matter. Leadership in nations, leadership in communities and leadership in technological advancements.
Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way….
TJ