Businesses hold the keys to the future of the US-China relationship. Businesses led the charge decades ago, they will be the tip of the spear at reshaping the relationship. New alliances, new partnerships, new technologies, and new business models. All of these will reshape the relationship between the two largest economies. Each watcher has their own view. Each watcher has their own prediction.
To some extent we have made the relationship a self-imposed prison sentence. Some businesses should cut ties. Some should redesign supply chains. Some should develop new technologies. Some should plant flags elsewhere. The last several years have brought US-China panels, sessions, forums, summits and dialogues……they only highlight our own shortcomings. The most impactful changes will come from within each others borders in the form of foundational leadership.
Let’s rehash the labels…..but first, some additional perspective…..
The US government awoke from a drunken binge in 2016 to find excess, greed and one-night stands. China “experts” came out of the woodwork. Many of whom have only read theories and theses, but fell short of practical experiences. The China influencer became the next thing. Channels were created, blogs were written, podcasts were spoken. Suddenly, groups were pushing narratives about China this, or China that. The centers of gravity shifted to social credit scores, human rights, technology transfers, traitors, enablers, Confucius institutes, Belt and Road, and of course the famous Wuhan lab.
Fast forward, and the US-China story has fatigued. The US government now has multiple groups with sole focus on China across the military, commercial and state. The Chinese CCP government has also created multiple groups focused on global leadership, economic competition, and social influence. Communication is cryptic and symbolic for one side and delusional on the other side. China, with a powerful one-party system and visions of grandiose global engagement. The US, with the sounds of freedom and economic dreams.
From the 2001 WTO economic flood gate opening, to the 2008 financial crisis, to the permanent leadership of Xi Jinping. All of these inflection points have accelerated business to and from the largest economies in the world. So much money has been made on both sides. However, business leaders knew the real stories decades ago. They were in the trenches and saw the transactions, the new business models and enormous money flows. The basics of supply and demand. Policies and regulations were managed, molded and shaped. The US had an unquenchable appetite. China had a prowess for systems, process and execution. It worked….until it didn’t……..
As we continue down the revolutionary road, perspective and knowledge is king. Recently, I was humbled to be a member of a diverse panel discussing (of course) the past, present and future of the US-China relationship! It hit me again that the majority of the populations on both sides have limited knowledge about how shit really works. While we all have unique experiences, we really only know what is in front of us, myself included. The academics have limited knowledge on businesses, the business people have limited knowledge on history, the historians have limited knowledge of the economies, the diplomats have no concept of creating revenue streams to make payroll, and the common citizens on both sides have limited awareness outside of the mythical social media wires. Business touches everyone in some form or fashion.
My thoughts on the future….(my guesses…😉)
The US-China relationship will continue to be a dance with different earphones…..
Investment and trade will continue to decline between the two countries…..
Trade rebalance will accelerate. Near-shoring and reshoring will continue to explode…..
A new generation of US businesses will lead us to the promised land. Tech, energy materials…
US government officials will continue to fumble the ball with engagements, misguided regulations and poorly informed decisions…..
Chinese CCP officials will continue to be ill-informed about free markets…….
The net……China will be fine and the US will be fine. Acceptance is the key to everything. The bijou and whiskey will still flow……it will just flow with different people.
Let the rebalance continue…..
Published months ago, Types of China Watchers was an attempt to label to label the types of “experts” across this centennial relationship…..of course with a little humor…
Sept. 23 2023………
It wasn’t long ago that most people didn’t think twice about where things were made and how they arrived at the location. It didn’t matter whether it was food, drugs, widgets, medical supplies, car parts, “rare” earths, energy, people, airplanes, water, and even sex toys. The US and global media helped amplify the messaging around China. Who they are….what they do….why they matter….why they don’t matter….who they align with….and what they think. All of these points of view are for the most part just guesses. The reality…..humans can’t read minds(yet!)…..nobody really knows. It is however, entertaining to watch the different sets of people try to predict and mold the future through eloquent speaking, complex words, “advanced” degrees, governmental titles, and of course local networks.
The reality…..humans are influenced and molded by a number of factors which include…the many forms of corruption, experiences, emotions, nefarious motives, history and culture. As such, I have categorized the plethora of “China Watchers” in an attempt to make light of the various groups who continue to grow for better or for worse.
The definition of a China Watcher is “someone or something who monitors the current affairs of China.” Some do this professionally. Some do this casually. Some do this as an identity for social media. Some do this unwillingly. Some do this because they are told to do it. Some just enjoy world politics, history, and economics. Some have vested monetary interests. Some have no purpose being involved in the discussions.
Ah, China watchers! These harbingers of penetrating insights, wielders of profound knowledge about the enigmatic Orient, each with their unique ability to make the complex tapestry of China seem like child’s play. With the dawn of the 21st century and China's sprawling ascendancy, a myriad of soothsayers has emerged, endeavoring to unmask the perplexing dynamics of the Middle Kingdom.
The Academic
These are very serious people! And too busy…..! Their worth and identity are based on the publishing they do and “knowledge” they possess. They are definitely on some sort of foreign affairs council, some sort of international foundation, a fellow of some think tank, and/or are always labeled experts of something. In this case they are experts in China. Most have never been in the corporate world. Many have not lived in China. Their knowledge is based in economic theory, past geopolitics, connections to China universities, or summer trips with groups of students. They play important roles in what has happened, what could happen, and theorize about tools or processes needed to make things work. The academic research and development organizations can provide significant benefit to science, technology and experimentation. With their insatiable quest for knowledge, they delve into the deep recesses of China’s millennia-old civilization, excavating treasures of cultural, economic, political, and historical wisdom.
The Businessperson
The savvy businesspeople!! The sages of market wisdom and commercial prophecy! With a discerning eye on the pulsating economic landscape of China, they unravel the secrets of market trends and business paradigms. There are many forms and factors of business watchers. They have done business with China, lived in China, traveled regularly to China over the course of the last 30+ years. They always have endless stories of China from the largest sales deals to the bowels of corruption and deceit. The government people shun them, and the academic people don’t quite know the power of commerce. The spies love them, and the locals see them as a means to an end. Business is the first to enter and the first to leave. They knew the plays before the bureaucracy arrived. The canary in the coalmine.
The Government Agent
The spies take many roles. From the economic development person to the non-profit executive to the corporate advisor. A China watcher spy is not just a gatherer of secrets but also a master of analysis. They dissect the acquired information, connecting dots and discerning patterns, to construct a coherent narrative about China’s ambitions, motivations, and strategies. They are the architects of understanding, building bridges of insight over the enigmatic rivers of China’s essence. They are the unsung architects of geopolitical understanding, their clandestine ballets shaping the silent symphonies of international relations. To them, they control the outcome.
The Chinese American
We welcome the insightful Chinese Americans, the cultural liaisons between the East and the West. Balancing dual heritage, they demystify the cultural nuances and societal dynamics of China. It’s delightful to imagine them as bilingual maestros, orchestrating a harmonious blend of diverse traditions and values. Their unique perspective is a beacon of hope, showcasing the enriching possibilities of multicultural integration and mutual appreciation.
With a foot in both lands, they unravel the intricate dance of political fabrics. Their observations are like vibrant brush strokes on the canvas of understanding, a hopeful glimpse into a harmonious confluence of East and West. Many have lived in foreign lands longer than their native. Some have found creative ways to funnel money across broken borders, careful to not awaken the dragon.
The Diplomat
While the diplomat is privy to much information, they rarely know all the information on the street. They have many perks and are afforded the gift of untouchable status as they weave their way through local politics and global affairs. What they say in public probably differs with what they say in private. They have been trained to say the right things to the right people. They have been trained to follow the right channels and please the right people. The effectiveness of the diplomat depends on many factors including the favors they produce across local relationships, accurate intel reports, domestic politics, economic enhancements, and spy scandals. They can have enormous influence on who has access and why they have access. This creates a power vacuum which can accelerate or decelerate depending on the person, place or thing. Without the diplomat, relationships stagnate, escalations go ignored and misunderstandings shine.
The Asian
They really don’t like China…. but they never say it out loud.
Here come the Asian observers, adding their unique melodies to the symphonic analysis of China! They lend their diverse lenses to discern the multifaceted personality of their colossal neighbor. Their contributions sprinkle diverse flavors to the stew of perspectives, enriching it with varied insights and distinctive understandings. One might find humor in their communal nodding, acknowledging the shared, yet diversified, roots and routes. The history is deep, and the relationships are complex. Better to be patient and balance the boulders.
The NGOs
Here are the compassionate NGOs, the crusaders of altruism and advocates for egalitarian values in China. With unwavering dedication, they spotlight the pressing issues and challenges within China, striving for positive change and sustainable solutions. The visual of them as the valiant warriors of humanity, battling for justice and equality, brings a smile to our faces. Their efforts paint a picture of hope, highlighting the potential for meaningful impact and transformative progress. A win-win for civilization and the next generation. From the impacts of climate on mental stability to the salvation of 800 million people. No cause is too small, no projected guilt is to near.
The Journalist and Media
They grace us with a cascade of enlightening articles and poignant commentaries, crafting the lenses through which we perceive the evolving global world order. Confidently, the flame of objective reporting and insightful commentary burns fiercely in their hands. They follow the herd and chase the headlines. They limit the details and cloud the truth. They are the guardians of their truth and heralds of contemporary narratives! With their undaunted spirits, they traverse the multifaceted realms of China, illuminating the obscured alleys of current affairs and socio-political developments. Love them and shun them, they survive day after day.
Which one are you?
The birds of a feather flock together.
LOL
TJ